The Wisdom and Means To Ride on The Market Trends In 2018
Met Two Types of Investor Friends
During the holiday vacation we met many investor friends, in general they represent two types of investors, type A and type B.
Type A investors completely missed the historical stock market rally in 2017. After presidential election of last November in 2016 the U.S. stock markets have been coming to a stage of rally after rallies. It didn’t even have a 5% retracement during this time which is unusual. At the end of 2016 NASDAQ index were 5,383 and at the end of year it’s 6,903, a gain of 28% in a year. However many people told me they could not join the marker rally since they were seeing the markets going up and up again, and thought it’s too high to buy. They completely missed the boat!
Type B investors were all in and stay invested. This group of investors have had a great year. The US stock markets had significant gains in 2017 and many people who simply buy and hold reached double digit gains: Dow Jones, from 19,763 to 24,719 gained 25.08%; S&P 500, from 2,239 to 2,674, gained 19.43%; and Nasdaq, from 5,383 to 6,903, gained 28.24%.
What About the Market Melt Down
In order to understand a market meltdown, we need to review the historical market meltdowns. See how the down trend started and distinguish the real down trend from mere market pullbacks.
One possible casualty in 2018 is it’s the 10-year cycle of the market collapse in the past.
- In 1987, Oct. 19 it was “Black Monday” and DJIA index dropped 41% from its near high.
- In 1998, the markets went through 1997 Asian financial crisis and 1998 Russian financial crisis, the DJIA dropped 23% from its near top.
- In 2008, the U.S. financial collapse, DJIA dropped 54% from its 2017 high.
- Now, in 2018 what will happen?
Wisdom and Means to Ride on Market Trends
Action to take for the year ahead is to stay invested. Currently the U.S. equity markets are near historical highs. If in one word to outlook 2018, it may rally more. There is a small sign of a pull back so far for January but overall the rally should continue in the U.S. especially since the new tax law passed will boost the market rally further.
AbleTrend believes in “what the market is doing, not what the market will do.” Reviewing all cases of 1987, 1998, and 2008, we clearly saw AbleTrend gave sell signals way ahead of the real market drops which saved everyone a lot of losses. We have the confidence to ride this rally until AbleTrend says to sell.
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