Due to good liquidity, low cost, and high leverage, many traders have chosen to follow the Forex markets. This application note will give detail guidance on how to trade Forex (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, etc.).
It is our belief that the indices price actions, like every other market, alternates between a short-period big price movement and a long-period consolidation. Normally, the length for consolidation is three to four times the length of the big price movement. This observation is very important for trend-following trading. Our software and all related trading methods and strategies are based on this understanding of the nature of the market.
Please spend time on two very important web pages and thoroughly understand the points and rules in these pages:
(You can also find similar materials in AbleTrend 7.0 Manuel as well as the Help within the software program.)
Because AbleTrend is very flexible to accommodate all trading styles and all markets, each trader can explore settings (selecting different intervals, applying different indicators and fine-tuning parameters for indicators applied) to fit his or her trading style and risk tolerance. This note intends to offer some specific settings and practical implementation details for a first time user of our software.
We recommend 30-60 minute charts for Forex day trading. If you have some experience, you can use a 15-min chart to act more aggressively if you anticipate that the upcoming session will likely be trending (the prior session was choppy). For the same reason, you can use a 60-min chart to let the software generate fewer signals so you can avoid some of the market choppiness. There is no absolute best interval in trading. It is generally true that charts with smaller intervals will generate more signals with lower initial trading risks and lower signal accuracy while charts with larger intervals will offer the opposite. Traders need to find the balance point that fit their trading profiles. For day trading Forex, a common mistake is using a very short time interval, such as 2-min or 5-min. The bar range of those charts are about the same as the market noise level. For swing trading over nights, you may use 60-240 minute charts. If you would like to keep it simple, you can use 60 min charts all the time. Since the most big price movements in Forex happen at night of the U.S., near the US, Asia or Europe market open, markets tend to more aggressive near those market open times.
You can change the session time inside the "S" (symbol) icon window. Normally we just use the default Forex setting that is 00:00 to 23:59 for 24 hour trading of the Forex. It will load the whole 24 hours of data.
Normally, traders like to use a relatively larger interval chart as guidance, such as using a 30-min chart along with a 3-min trading chart. We can call the 3-min chart the "trading window". A trader will follow the signals and stop values in the trading window to execute trades. We call the 30-min chart a "guidance window". It will be ideal to find the tradable opportunities in the trading window that are also in agreement with the directional bias indicated by the guidance window. For example, trade the long (buy) signal agreement in the trading window while the guidance window also indicates a long (buy) signal. But sometimes, it is not appropriate to mechanically enforce the direction agreement between the trading window and the guidance window with the equal weight (50/50). Under certain conditions (please refer to Day Trading Rule A), we have to give more weigh to the signals in the trading window to "break the tie".
The key to the success of STM is its "near 100% mechanical" nature to remove traders' guesswork and emotion in trading. Our software offers colors and dots as well as exact values. Once the trader decides to trade, the entry, stops and exits are pretty much managed by the program. The best entry points are called "sweet spots" that the price is near by the T2 stops. When you see 3 bars that the close prices cannot breakout the T2 dots, it's a good time to enter the position. You will know right or wrong very soon since the prices are near the T2 level. It is fairly straightforward, of course, you also see triangle, flatness and low volume at that time, it's the time to give it a try. You must know, no one can tell ahead the trade win or loss. It's always working on the odds.
Traders need to understand which phase the market is in. As we mentioned before, the market always alternates between a big thrust and consolidation. As a trend-following trader, you need to get very aggressive in honoring (executing) the signal agreement at the end of a long period of consolidation of the STM rules. The odds for a big thrust or a "run" will be very high at this time. This is just the nature of the market. It is very important to know this. But knowing this phenomenon alone is not specific enough for trading. As a trader, we need to take a much closer look at how the market behaves in most cases. Here are two filtering rules for day trading:
Day Trading Rule A - We consider a move of 70-80% of the recent daily price range as a major move. At the end of a major movement, 2 hours of consolidation is considered as "medium" and 3 hours of consolidation is considered as "well done". This is just for day trading with smaller interval charts, e.g. 2,3,5 minute charts. Actually, the consolidation length is 3-4 times the length of the major price movement. This is generally true for all interval charts. Please note that this filtering rule could be used to "break the tie" if the trading window signals are conflicting with the signals in the guidance window. In other words, if you see two-hours or three-hours of consolidation in the trading window, the signals in the guidance window are less important. Also, this filtering rule could be used to supersede the filtering rule B stated below in case of conflicting.
Day Trading Rule B - For day trading, don't fight with the morning winner. The morning winner is the directional breakout of the first hour range. The winner is a "bull" if the first hour high is broken with force and volume. A trader will have a "long" bias for the rest of the trading session unless Filtering Rule A takes over, meaning: You don't care about Day Trading Rule B after three hours of consolidation. Just follow the signal agreement if you see three hours of consolidation with triangle, flat prices and low volume.
Due to the uncertain nature of the market, everybody is equally at the mercy of the market once the trade is placed. No body can control the market direction. But we all can control our own trading risks (to a certain degree of course). With "sweet spots", we are entering a trade at a low risk and high reward area. By looking at the T2 value before you place the trade, you know exactly what will be the initial risks. Once the price is heading the direction we desire, we can just follow the T2 trailing stops to manage the trade. We can dramatically cut down the emotional involvement of the real time price fluctuation. We tend to make fewer mistakes if we have less emotional ups and downs when we have positions in the market. T3 (for ASCTrend 3.5 indicators) or T13 (for AbleTrend 7.0) could be used once the market has done an extended move or has tested the key support/resistance a second time.